Fullerton, 1893, Some Remarks on Aerial Warfare

"Some Remarks on Aerial Warfare", delivered in 1893 by J. D. Fullerton, Royal Engineer, at an international meeting of military engineers in Chicago. Cited in following decades as prescient.

Printed in Operations of the Division of Military Engineering of the International Congress of Engineers: Held in Chicago Last August, Under the Auspices of the World's Congress Auxiliary of the Columbian Exposition; Washington: Government Printing Office, 1894. p. 569.

Fullerton says that aerial warfare is now possible and therefore must be studies. He considers both lighter-than-air and heavier-than-air crafts. LTA crafts such as La France are impressive but reach a top speed of 25 mph. Furthermore they are vulnerable due to the softness of balloons, and not reliable in different kinds of weather.

In the airplane department, Fullerton cites prototypes created by Hiram Stevens Maxim and Horatio Frederick Phillips. He recognizes that airplanes will be much faster and less vulnerable.

He suggests that airplanes will need two kinds of armaments: those for use against the ground and those for use against other aircraft. For the later he suggests light machine guns.

Airplanes will enable much better reconnaissance in land warfare, and will fundamentally change the requirements for defensive structures, which will have to be covered above.

Finally:

Wars in the future will probably commence with severe fighting in the air, the victor following up his successes with sea and land attacks (aided by air ships) whenever possible.
But the chief work will be done in the air, and the arrival of the aërial fleet over the enemy's capital will probably conclude the campaign.